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The answer, as Brendan Nyhan recently put it, depends on how much you trust the most recent polls.
The most recent polls confirm the trend.
Most recent polls put it around 10-11%.
The most recent polls have shown a public divided.
It weights the most recent polls somewhat more heavily.
The most recent polls show Mr. Bush somewhat ahead.
Mr. Romney has had a very slight lead in the most recent polls of Illinois.
The most recent polls show the Conservatives leading by about five percentage points.
The most recent polls suggest that Mr. Obama's advantage may be continuing to expand in Ohio.
The most recent polls there, however, give Mr. Romney big leads as well.
The 41 percent figure is somewhat higher than most recent polls anticipated.
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