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As with the most likely eruption scenario, this is predominantly a consequence of local wind conditions.
Fig. 6 Probability maps that represent total ash accumulation on the ground over a most likely eruption scenario as computed by the TEPHRA2 model.
Fig. 8 Model comparison plot for a cumulative 2 year ground deposit from the most likely eruption scenario (Santorini Weak) exceeding 1 kg/m2.
The black star marks the simulated vent location Fig. 7 Exceedance probability curves for cumulative ash load at each of the nine key sites of interest, as computed by the TEPHRA2 model for a most likely eruption scenario.
For the most likely eruption scenario (i.e. long-duration and intermittent ash production from weak plumes), ash loading is expected to be too small for roof collapse to be a threat.
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Fig. 4 The average number of days, for the six scenario variants identified in Table 3, during the course of the one or two-year simulated most likely eruptions, as computed by the TEPHRA2 model, that the daily deposit exceeded 1 g/m2, approximately related to the onset of ash fall and reduced air quality.
These samples were whitish, fine-grained tuffs, most likely erupted during sub-plinian eruptions.
Two separate cases for ash production during a most likely scenario eruption are described here to account for different approaches to calculating mass flux from plume height.
We believed this smallpox-like eruption most likely resulted from a herpesvirus.
Mount Hood is considered the Oregon volcano most likely to erupt, though based on its history, an explosive eruption is unlikely.
We discuss results for the most likely weak plume eruption scenario here.
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