3 and 4, and after some exploratory work on the systematic eliciting of expert's opinions, a series of one-day, in-depth interviews was organized with four experts on European demographic developments: two on fertility, one on mortality and one on international migration.
The experts on mortality and migration gave 80% prediction intervals around these forecasts, based on their insights into future as compared to past uncertainty.
The Eurostat convergence scenario, however, is only one of several possible population-change scenarios based on assumptions on fertility, mortality, and migration.
Information on mortality and migration was derived from the Central Population Register of Finland.
We obtained data on mortality and migration from the CRS, which is updated daily.
From 1970 until the end of the projection, the software progresses the population forward based on demographic indicators on fertility, mortality, and migration.
Censuses are performed at regular intervals and information on pregnancies, births, mortality and migration is collected on a daily basis.
Information on migration and mortality was obtained from Statistics Denmark and the Cause of Death Register.
Another workshop is planned towards the end of 2013 focussing on migration and mortality which will build further on the previous workshops and focus on the analysis of migration and mortality.
If the incidence of new HIV infections over time is known for the entire population, the number of individuals living with HIV may be estimated using additional data on migration and mortality.
