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In summary, we propose a framework, which appears to be applicable to derive mortality forecasts for developed populations experiencing stable and unstable mortality developments.
However, they provide a useful first indication how each approach deals with (ir)regular mortality developments in a medium forecast horizon of roughly 20 years.
This can be useful for populations, which undergo irregular mortality developments and that face long-term trend changes in the forecast years.
Although many of these approaches can yield better forecasts than the original Lee-Carter model, it is still challenging to forecast unsteady mortality developments such as turning points in the long-term trend (Coelho and Nunes 2011) or the aging of mortality decline (Horiuchi and Wilmoth 1995).
Validating mortality forecasts for British and Danish women from 1991 to 2011 suggest that our model can forecast regular and irregular mortality developments and that it can perform at least as well as other widely accepted approaches like, for instance, the Lee-Carter model or the UN Bayesian approach.
We are aware of the fact that such comparisons are insufficient to fully assess the accuracy of the applied approaches (Hyndman et al. 2013); however, they are useful to give a first impression how each approach deals with regular mortality developments in the UK and irregular mortality trends in Denmark.
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However, findings of sex differences in mortality development in the developed countries during the last quarter of the twentieth century have been mixed.
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Typically, patients with sepsis can be treated efficiently with early intravascular fluid and antibiotics in the ICU to avoid mortality development.
British women and men feature a rather regular mortality development with a stable increase in life expectancy at birth in the last decades.
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