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Global affairs are shifting at such a pace that the only certainty about the coming years is that there will be more unknown unknowns, not fewer.
However, waiting for uncertainty to "resolve" might not be a good strategy (at least for the time being) if, as mentioned earlier, the variance of the effects of climate change tends to increase rather than decrease as scientists uncover more "unknown unknowns" that may influence or be influenced by global warming.
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It is a costly "insurance" against unknown unknowns, when more is needed for the very well knowns - small military expeditions and peacekeeping missions.
Second, the mechanisms through which global warming will affect the environment are still subject to controversy, and this controversy expands as scientists collect more information and discover new "unknown unknowns" that could affect or be affected by global warming (Victor 2011).
Bernard Jenkin, who chairs the Commons public administration select committee (Pasc), asks why the Treasury didn't spend a lot more time beforehand thinking about the unknown unknowns, and reflecting on what might happen when the trend line comes to an abrupt halt.
Unknown unknowns are far more interesting.
AI safety research is critical to identifying unknown unknowns, but is there more the AI community or the rest of society can do to help mitigate potential risks?
The scientists pursuing that method also found their guesswork limited by "the effect of the unknown unknowns" which "made it more difficult to produce a reliable upper bound on the flow rate".
Although unknown unknowns and Black Swan events make evaluating investment risks more challenging, they don't change the value of diversification and controlling the risks we do know about.
As the machine became more adept, it might turn its attention to things people don't know they don't know the "unknown unknowns".
Having two scientists discuss the Rumsfeldian realm of known and unknown unknowns makes for a far-out beginning, but as the journey continues the film becomes more grounded in wonders that we can comprehend.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com