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The monthly mortality data on injuries in Xiamen (1 January 2002 to 31 December 2013) were used to fit the ARIMA model with the conditional least-squares method.
Because monthly mortality data in South Korea are available only after a 3-month delay, information on the number of wintertime deaths could, in an operational sense, be used to estimate early information on expected summertime burdens.
To estimate baseline deaths in the absence of influenza activity, we fitted a cyclical regression model to monthly mortality data for the prepandemic period 1915 1917 and included temporal trends and harmonic terms for seasonality (5, 24 – 24 ).
A recent study [ 9] made use of the monthly mortality data in Taiwan during that time period to estimate that the total number of excess deaths during the pandemic months of November-December 1918 and January-February 1920 was 51,048 (95% CI 41,998-61,853).
We used codes from the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10), to compile an age-specific (5 19, 20 44, 45 64, 64 74, and >75 years) monthly mortality data time series for all-cause (ICD-10: any); all respiratory (ICD-10: J00–J99); all circulatory (ICD-10: I00–I99); and pneumonia and influenza (P&I) (ICD-10: J10 J18), a subset of all respiratory deaths.
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To determine the effect of influenza on mortality rates during the pandemic years, we obtained monthly mortality rate data from various official sources in Singapore.
When monthly mortality rate data were available, the onset of an epidemic was identified by an increase in the number of deaths from tens to hundreds over a 2-month period and by multiple historical references to typhus cases.
The result of the above temporal trend test showed that the series of monthly injury mortality data in Xiamen from 2002 to 2013 was a non-stationary sequence.
So this might not affect the monthly mortality from injury data used to build the model in our study.
We used monthly all-cause mortality data to estimate province-level mortality burden of the pandemic, as did prior studies (30 – 30 ).
To estimate baseline mortality in the absence of influenza activity, we fit cyclical regression models to monthly pre-pandemic mortality data for 1915 17, including temporal trends and harmonic terms for seasonality [ 6, 19, 34, 35].
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