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The sixth and seventh factors are more forward looking: the change in the S&P 500 stock market index, and the consensus forecast of gross domestic product growth over the next two economic quarters, as taken from the median of The Wall Street Journal's monthly forecasting panel.
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Monthly forecasts and three-monthly forecasts of rainfall are assessed for lead times of 0 6 months, based on leave-one-year-out cross-validation for 1980 2010.
As forecast skill diminishes with increasing lead time, the monthly forecasts approach climatology.
The Conference Board's monthly forecast of economic activity increased 0.3percentt in December.
The pitch was very simple: they compared manual monthly forecasts for one year with the system's forecasts.
The New York-based Conference Board said its monthly forecast of future economic activity declined 0.5percentt in August.
The Conference Board's monthly forecast of economic activity fell 0.4percentt last month, slightly better than the 0.6percentt decline economists expected.
FX4casts has compiled monthly forecasts since 1984 based on responses from contributors in 45 authoritative financial organizations located worldwide.
Using antecedent streamflow and climate indices as predictors, monthly forecasts are developed for the three-month period ahead.
"We're not doing a seasonal forecast any more, and instead do a monthly forecast following on from advice from the public.
Seasonal forecasts accumulated from monthly forecasts are found to be similarly skilful to forecasts from BJP models based on seasonal totals directly.
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CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com