For Campylobacter, clusters of lags were seen with all Fourier models, but not with models that used month indicators.
The PM2.5 model included terms for year and month (indicators), street density within 250 m (tertile-based indicators), distance to the nearest major road (dichotomized at 2,000 m), and monthly averages of daily high temperatures and precipitation (quartile-based indicators).
The CO model included terms for year and month (indicators), street density within 500 m (quartile-based indicators), distance to the nearest major road (< 100, 101 1,000, > 1,000 m), and census tract population density (continuous).
*Significant lags consistently found in clusters with all forms of seasonal adjustment (3, 6, and 12 harmonics and month indicators); regression models are additional adjusted for yearly trend and public holidays.
And the five-day January indicator is not as strong as it looks when one considers that the market goes up in most years.
"The November indicators leave no doubt that a serious and lengthy recession is under way," said William K. MacReynolds, director of forecasting for the United States Chamber of Commerce.
The July indicators for industrial output, retail sales, fixed-asset investment and bank lending all provided a fairly consistent snapshot of a country where economic growth remains the strongest in the world, but where the nearly manic spending of the last few months is starting to fade.
While January indicators hint at a gradual stabilization and recovery, White says that consumer-related data points aren't the only key factors in judging a recovery.
[C4.] ECONOMIC INDICATORS RISE The index of leading economic indicators rose in April for a second month, an indicator that the current slowdown will be short-lived.
Adding to the gloom, Credit Suisse Research Analyst Cameron McKnight highlights slowing mainland China credit growth, a 12-to-15 12-to-15 12-to-15icator of month GGR, with no major stimuleadingected to counter the trend.
