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An overall pattern of demand is calculated by averaging month indices over years.
The three-month index has dropped below minus 0.70 during only six periods since 1967, the start of the Chicago Fed's data, and only one of those times did the economy skirt recession, commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction.
The overall December index grew 0.2percentt, matching expectations.
The Chicago Purchasing Management Association reported its June index rose to 44.4 from 38.7 in May.
The June index is the highest since it was 128.6 in December.
The October index, however, remained above 50, the point between growth and contraction.
Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected the June index to increase to 78.1.
In this July, index prices were already up to 146, and by the end of Aug. they were at 147.
The June index for the euro zone, also released Wednesday, rose to 42.6, from 40.7 in May.
The April index, released last week, indicated that consumers were planning to increase their spending at an annual rate of 5.8percentt.
The August index reading was the first below 50 since January 1999 and the lowest since 46.3 in December 1998.
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