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Open image in new window Fig. 1 Modes of climate change.
The univariate linear systems that appear in the work have been successful in describing various modes of climate variability.
Over the last decades, understanding of these modes of climate variability has increased but prediction in the context of global warming has proven difficult because of the lack of pertinent and reproducible paleodata.
Triggers for cold anomalies are linked to variable combinations of freshwater pulses, low total solar irradiance, explosive and effusive volcanism, and internal modes of climate variability, with cooling likely sustained by ocean/sea-ice feedbacks.
There is increasing evidence that the distribution of hydrometeorological variables such as average or extreme rainfall/runoff is modulated by modes of climate variability in many regions of the world.
Regardless of the temporal scale and region of impact, these natural modes of climate variability have existed historically, independent of anthropogenically driven climate change.
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This phenomenon, driven by atmospheric pressure differences that affect how storms cross the ocean, is the dominant mode of climate variability in the region.
This exchange is modulated by variations of the Arctic Oscillation, a large-scale mode of climate variability, also referred to as the Northern Hemisphere annular mode (Thompson and Wallace 1998).
Climate model projections simulate such pauses, a few every hundred years lasting a decade or more; and they replicate the influence of the modes of natural climate variability, like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) that we think is at the centre of the current pause.
Jin et al. (2009) analyzed the impact of future climate change on water resources in Yangtze River basin with a way of developing and applying a large-scale statistical and concept hydrological model and collecting output data of air temperature and precipitation under different discharge situation of 24 modes of global climate.
This period includes years with relative extremes in atmospheric forcing over the Southern Ocean, associated with extreme phases of large-scale coupled modes of interannual climate variability (see Meredith et al. 2008, for full discussion).
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