WASHINGTON, Sept. 7 — Two-thirds of the world's polar bears will disappear by 2050, even under moderate projections for shrinking summer sea ice caused by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, government scientists reported on Friday.
Steven C. Amstrup, the federal biologist who led an analysis last year concluding that the world's polar bear population could shrink two thirds by 2050 under moderate projections for retreating summer sea ice, is once again in the field along Alaska's Arctic coast, studying this year's brood of cubs, yearlings and mothers.
The IPCC's moderate projections clearly contradict alarmist rhetoric such as the recurring claims from activists of temperature rise of more than 5C (9F), and sea level rise of 1-2m (3-6fto, not to mention Al Gore's 6m (20ft).
Using PHAL anterograde tracing methods, Cenquizca and Swanson (2007) located the moderate projections to two primary olfactory cortical areas and prelimbic areas of the mPFC.
The U.S. Geological Survey predicts two-thirds of the world's polar bears will disappear by 2050, based on moderate projections for the shrinking of summer sea ice caused by climate change.
Orbital regions (areas 13, OPro) and lateral area 46 exhibited moderate projections, and area 10 was sparsely innervated.
In short, even relatively moderate projections suggest that climate change has the potential to break up local floras, resulting in new species mixes, with consequent novel patterns of competition and other biotic interactions.
A similar analysis for area 10 (Fig. 4 C) shows a comparably good fit for most of the data involving strong and moderate projections.
The absolute value of the correlation remains moderate because projection of multidimensional data into 2D leads to significant loss of information.
Under two climate scenarios (stable climate or moderate warming), projections of the invasion probability suggest that this pest could expand its distribution 40 55% by 2025.
