Army units have used hand-launched models, which look like toy planes, to peer over hills or buildings.
We have considered additional adjustments and different transition models, which look at proportional rather than absolute swings, but felt that these wouldn't provide a noticeable systematic advantage to the approach we have adopted, while instead adding considerable complexity and clutter to our model.
The result was DSGE – dynamic stochastic general equilibrium – models, which looked a lot like real business cycle models, except for the assumed wage/price stickiness.
Our work is also different from other recent and more applied models which looked at the effects of infant vaccination on the epidemiology of S. pneumoniae infection, by using pre and post invasive disease surveillance data from, respectively, Australia and the US [ 29, 30].
In economics, Ray Fair up at Yale has got a model which looks at unemployment and growth and inflation and uses that to predict Presdential vote.
Our forecast model, which looks at polling and polling alone, now gives Mr. Santorum about a five-percentage-point lead in Michigan.
Our economic model, which looks at a wider array of economic indicators than the other ones do, is a bit more equivocal.
What is under attack, in a crude and cruel way, is Commerzbank's business model, which looks less convincing by the hour.
Aside from heavyweight backing, the other reason Purplebricks is worth a look is the business model, which looks a genuine threat to traditional estate agents charging commission of between 1% and 3%.
The Artec model, which looks a little like an upright laundry iron connected to a laptop, projects a specially-calibrated grid onto an object, and then looks at the way the squares of the grid are bent.
The value of markets like Intrade is that they can account for a lot of other factors in addition to the polls — unlike the FiveThirtyEight primary model, which looks at the topline numbers from the polls alone.
