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A heuristic measure of increase was Δ: the difference between the modelled baseline outcome and the modelled outcome at the seventh examination.
PVA is an analytical tool providing a modelled outcome from available parameter values, in this case modern-day populations [ 24, 25].
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In this section we will describe the used land-use modelling platform, the way by which cohesion policy impacts are modelled with it, and the applied methods to evaluate cohesion impacts of the modelled outcomes.
The modelled outcomes indicate that environmental changes, such as deforestation, had a major impact on the local water cycle and this amplified the effect of the prevailing climate on the flow regime.
We modelled outcomes for 5 years.
Modelled outcomes included death, hospitalisation, quality of life and New York Heart Association class.
We applied indirect standardisation, i.e. the modelled outcomes were applied to the population at hand.
Strict correlation is imposed between the modelled probabilities at 30 days and 1 year to avoid irrational modelled outcomes.
Modelled outcomes over a lifetime horizon included clinical events, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), total costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs).
Because compliance appears to have little effect on post-campaign prevalence, correlated compliance is unlikely to have major impact on modelled outcomes.
Sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations were performed using Crystal Ball, an Excel add-in by Oracle, to quantify the impact of uncertainties on modelled outcomes.
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