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Time was modelled as a continuous variable, and all coefficients are the modelled change in each parameter per month, with the p value referring to the significance of this change over time.
We modelled change in SRH by use of the absolute difference in latent SRH.
10 The modelled change in consumption for each subgroup then feeds into a change in relative or absolute risk, and the potential impact fraction method 17 is used to adjust observed mortality and morbidity rates.
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Our results showed a smaller health effect of increased cycling than found by de Hartog et al and Woodcock et al 4 18 However, these studies modelled changes in larger fictive populations, whereas we modelled the potential effects of a real policy goal formulated by the City of Copenhagen.
Although the changes in calorie intake dominate the modelled changes in mortality (table 4), the changes are considerably fewer than calorie reductions modelled in previous studies of taxes on GHGs or soft drinks (where calories are not assumed to be replaced), which suggest that they are plausible.
The modelled changes, using APSIM-Wheat and APSIM-Barley, in SOC matched reasonably well the calculated behaviour with the greatest decline under zero N application with overall RMSE of 4.1 t C ha− 1 (0–30 cm) (4.5%) ranging from 1.4 to 8.7 t C ha− 1 (2 to 7%) over time.
15 Modelled changes for all food groups can be found in the online supplementary web materials.
These modelled benefits were larger than either observed or modelled changes to injuries, whereas changes in exposure to air pollution were small.
The modelled changes were calculated by subtracting the 2050s prediction from directly comparable modelled present day climate following Peterson et al. [ 24] and IPCC recommendations [ 57].
We did this within a multiple imputation framework (using five imputations) to account for uncertainty in the modelled changes over time.
In order to produce future climate datasets which are directly comparable with the observed data, we applied modelled changes in climate to the present day observed data.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com