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In the US Southwest, for instance, state-of-the-art climate model projections suggest the risk of a decade-scale megadrought in the coming century is less than 50%; our analysis suggests that the risk is at least 80%, and may be higher than 90% in certain areas.
Using scenarios ranging from business-as-usual to strong longer-term managed decline in emissions, the climate model projections suggest the global mean surface temperature could rise by between 2.8°C and 5.4°C by the end of the 21st century.
Overall, the results do not suggest immediate concern for current water resource management on the basis of observed trends alone; however, the differences between observations and model projections suggest these findings should not be viewed complacently, and greater reconciliation between data- and model-based assessments should be sought as a basis for informing water management decisions.
Model projections suggest that polar surface waters will become undersaturated with respect to aragonite in 2050 in the Southern Ocean [12], [13] and as early as 2016 during one month per year in the Arctic Ocean [14].
For instance, some preliminary model projections suggest the Baltic Sea may experience both higher temperatures and lower salinities [110]; this could lead to loss of marine fish species as fish communities become less diverse and are characterized by species tolerant of lower salinity [111].
Model projections suggest these groups contribute 40 75%9595% CrI) of incident HIV infections.
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Model projections suggested decreases (~ 10 60%) in pollutant concentrations, mainly attributable to decreases in pollutants from local sources between 2001 and 2010.
These climate-model projections suggest that what we consider today to be an episode of severe drought might even be classified as a period of abnormal wetness by the end of the century and that a coming megadrought — a prolonged, multidecade period of significantly below-average precipitation — is possible and likely in the American West.
These differences underscore the need for future forest modeling research that emphasizes multi-model comparisons and multi-variable sensitivity tests, and suggests caution is warranted in relying on model projections beyond suggesting possible futures, and as a means to explore key relationships between species, changing climate, and disturbance regimes.
High-resolution regional climate simulations were used to suggest increased future fire risk across northern and eastern Australia [27], which aligns with outcomes from our models with biomass constrained, though our projections suggest more of a long-term decrease in fire in our unconstrained models.
Computer model projections earlier this week suggested that the air temperature at the pole, which is currently shrouded in 24-hour darkness, could reach 5C, rather than the usual -30 to -35C, according to Mashable.
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