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Our optimization method efficiently searches large sets of intervention strategies applied to a stochastic network model of pandemic influenza transmission within and among U.S. cities.
To duplicate the observed global dynamics for pandemic H1N1 2009, we set the value of
We linked an age structured transmission model of pandemic influenza with healthcare consumption and unit costs for healthcare resources specific to Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom.
15 To address this 'modelling gap' an individual-based disease transmission model of pandemic influenza has been developed for Papua New Guinea (PNG), based on the methods used previously to develop a pandemic influenza model of Albany, Western Australia.
Using an age-structured model of pandemic influenza transmission in the Canadian population, we have demonstrated that the magnitude and duration of social distancing behaviours adopted by the population during a severe pandemic can have a significant impact on the overall need for antiviral drugs.
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In contrast to this model of pandemics based on antigenic drift and shift, an alternative approach has been proposed where the periodic pandemics are produced by interactions of a fixed set of viral strains with a human population with a constantly changing set of immunities to different viral strains.
Due to the recent emergence of H5N1 virus, the modelling of pandemic influenza has become a relevant issue.
We compared the modelled results of final attack rates in the absence of any interventions and the effect of school closure as a single intervention with other published individual based models of pandemic influenza in the developed world.
A drawback of previous models of pandemic influenza is that they either ignore or do not explicitly consider the effects of immunity acquired from the first wave on disease outcomes in the second and consecutive waves.
However, models of pandemic spread are in most cases hypothetical because they focus on future pandemics [e.g. [ 6, 7, 10- 13]] and, thus, are not validated with empirical data.
There exist several simulation models of pandemic influenza that can be used at the provincial and local levels and were not treated as part of the evaluated models in this article.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com