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Collective model forecasts show a continuation of at least weak El Niño-level Niño-levelng through 2019.
Dr Andrew Watkins, manager of the bureau's climate prediction services, told the assembled media: "Computer model forecasts show a significant likelihood of a La Niña in 2010".
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Model forecasts showed that reducing LOS from the mean of 20 days for Level 3 and 18 days for Level 2 hospitals to a duration of 1 week, which is common among Western countries, afforded cost reductions of 49 % and 19, respectively.
The average of the dynamical model forecasts is shown by the thick yellow line, and statistical model forecasts by the thick blue/green line.
Perhaps even more frightening, computer model forecasts are showing the very real possibility that Harvey will move back over the Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday, when it could restrengthen modestly.
The International Research Institute and NOAA/Climate Prediction Center's latest roundup of model forecasts for ENSO shows a neutral event – that is, neither El Niño nor La Niña – continuing through the summer.
A purely objective ENSO probability forecast, based on regression, using as input the model predictions from the plume of dynamical and statistical forecasts shown in the ENSO Predictions Plume.
A purely objective ENSO probability forecast, based on regression, using as input the model predictions from the plume of dynamical and statistical forecasts shown in Fig. 4.
It uses human judgment in addition to model output, while the forecast shown in the Model-Based Probabilistic ENSO Forecast relies solely on model output.
It uses human judgment in addition to model output, while the forecast shown in Fig. 3 relies solely on model output.
The following plots show the model forecasts issued not only from the current month (as in the plot above), but also from the 21 months previous to this month.
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