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The results also indicated that the optimal ANN model forecast the ITE accurately, with a mean root mean square error (RMSE) of just 1.933% and a mean coefficient of determination (CD) of 0.949.
Although the seasonal factors of some of the series are changing over time, the simple first order differencing in conjunction with the regression model forecast the future observations within the 95percentt confidence bounds.
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A second type of model, called a statistical-dynamical model, forecasts the large-scale circulation by solving equations that describe changes in atmospheric pressure, wind, and moisture.
The predictive model forecasts the probability of a number of abnormal events occurring in the next time interval.
Bioclimatic models forecast the loss of key high elevation species throughout the region.
One tropical cyclone prediction model forecast significant intensification to a minimum pressure of 968 mbar, and other models forecast the depression would reach hurricane status upon making landfall.
Towards the end of May 2008, computer hurricane models forecast the development of a broad low pressure area to the southwest of Central America.
After crossing over Prince Edward Island, The storm fully dissipated late on November 2. For several days, weather models forecast the development of a significant storm off New England.
Statistical models forecast the evolution of a tropical cyclone in a simpler manner, by extrapolating from historical datasets, and thus can be run quickly on platforms such as personal computers.
However elegant its models, forecasting the behavior of 2,393 mortgage holders is an uncertain business.
Other models forecasted the progress from place to place, by presuming a steady diffusion of cases from the initial outbreak.
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