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In the process of model estimation, the sample is divided between training, test, and out-of-sample (forecasting) samples with the percentages of 80%, 100 %, and 10%%, respectively.
Prior to probit model estimation, the variance inflation factor (VIF) was employed to test the presence of multi-collinearity among independent variables.
It should be noted however that due to the relatively small number of observations (n = 25 countries) used in the model estimation, the reliability of the adjusted R2 value is somewhat limited and it should be interpreted as a rough estimate only of the model fit of each of the multivariate linear regression models presented in this section.
As presented in Section 2.2, after model estimation, the computation of the predicted probabilities at varying ages and levels of regional GDP per capita following the structure of the transition matrix in Section 2.1 requires the notation from Eqs. (6)–(14).
Although we used no summaries of the site frequency spectrum other than θπ in our model estimation, the observed Tajima's D values in non-German populations fit nearly as well as the statistics used in the model estimation.
* Results of model estimation; the addition of mean costs per category yields slightly different figures.
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Due to the relatively small number of observations (n = 25 countries) used in our model estimations, the outcomes should be interpreted as a rough estimate.
According to the mixed-model estimation, the COI is estimated to temporarily decrease in 2014, followed by almost no change thereafter.
According to the mixed-model estimation, the COI was estimated to temporarily decrease to 148.8 billion yen in 2014, after which it will remain mostly unchanged at 146.9 billion yen in 2017 and 147.8 billion yen in 2020.
According to the logarithm-model estimation, the COI is estimated to remain mostly unchanged at 159.8 billion yen in 2014, 163.4 billion yen in 2017, and 164.6 billion yen in 2020.
According to our future predictions (fixed-model estimation), the number of deaths will increase, but the COI, DC, MbC, and MtC are estimated to remain unchanged.
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