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A novel adjoint-based procedure for adaptive tuning of the specified model error covariance matrix is introduced.
Model error covariance matrix.
Fig. 3 Model error covariance matrices for atmospheric profile errors.
These are derived from the COV-OBS.x1 field model and its posterior model error covariance matrix.
The quantities entering the a priori data error and model error covariance matrices are a priori unknown.
The largest errors are likely biases caused by unmodelled sources (Sabaka et al. 2015) which cannot be assessed using a formal model error covariance matrix, or by constructing models using the same technique from independent datasets.
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The model presented in this study aims to produce, as far as possible, an unbiased estimate of the core state, considering SV model error covariances via a stochastic equation.
Next, from this model we obtain within six iterations (typically a few iterations are enough for convergence) the COV-OBS.x1 field model together with its a posteriori model errors' covariance matrix using a 3σ e rejection criterion.
Before comparing the models, error covariances, between items 4 and 5, and 5 and 6, were specified.
The quantification of the model error, especially the error covariance between different state variables, was found to be critical to the estimate of the state variable corresponding to the error covariance.
The model and measurement error covariance matrices Q and R along with the UKF parameters are selected using a modified particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm.
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