If natural factors act to dampen global surface warming, as they have in the 2000s, the climate is likely to warm more slowly than the model average.
Under the Gonski model, average schools received a 3.6% increase annually, the most disadvantaged schools received a 4.7% increase to "catch up", while historically well resourced schools received 3%.
If natural factors act to amplify human-caused global surface warming, as they did in the 1990s, the climate is likely to warm faster than the model average in the short-term.
In any case, the PAGE model average estimate of the cost per ton of carbon dioxide emissions today exceeds $100, whereas in most existing carbon emissions trading schemes and carbon taxes, the price is in the range of $10 25 per ton.
This is why it's important to retain the shaded range of individual model runs, unlike Bjorn Lomborg in The Australian, Judith Curry in The Australian, Benny Peiser at GWPF, Roger Pielke Jr., David Rose in the Mail on Sunday (copied by Hayley Dixon in The Telegraph), and Der Spiegel, all of whom only considered the model average.
Open image in new window Fig. 3 System TCTSF (constant load model, Average Policy).
The model average voltage estimation error of all technologies is 0.48%.
Using the orthosis prediction model, average ΔGDI for orthosis users was estimated to improve to +5.6 points.
The single-step global model average apparent activation energy was found to be 142.64 ± 5.7 kJ/mol.
Some observations of heavy ions only should be expected outside the model average IMB, as the IMB is dynamic.
The null model average reported in the last row of Table 3 has been calculated averaging 30 iterations.
