Two scenarios will be modelled: a conservative scenario and a substantial but politically feasible scenario.
We have modeled a conservative scenario, in which influenza has a disease life history similar to that of SARS, but with shorter latent and infectious periods (Table 1).
To assess the unique contribution of each independent variable to the increment in aR in the final models, a conservative semi-partial R was calculated for each variable using Stata procedure 'pcorr' [ 15].
Considering that the optimization minimize MSE and size, we defined as sub optimal models those solutions having MSE within a 10% of tolerance with respect to the MSE of optimal models (a conservative approximation to the real experimental error), and maximal size of 28 (the size of the optimal models; Section 3.1).
In particular, our set of models encompasses a conservative model (which is only based on the most accepted and least disputable laws) and several less conservative models (which rely on more disputable laws).
The decision to use only clinically infected people in the model ensures a conservative estimate of OC in river-water because the model omits prophylactic use and personal stockpiles; the latter was omitted because the extent of personal stockpiling and the quality of drug being stockpiled is unknown.
Furthermore, because in our model the rate of spread of the cofactor is not exacerbated by the presence of the primary disease, the model reflects a conservative estimate of the impact that the cofactor might make on the progression of the primary disease.
Jason LeVecke Tempe, Ariz., July 14 , 2008 To the Editor: Senator John McCain says his model for a conservative president is Theodore Roosevelt.
The model has a conservative success of 90% according to the field validation and a cross validation accuracy of 92%.
The model provides a conservative estimate of soot's impact, he says, because the simulated concentrations of soot were generally lower than real-world values over the last 40 years.
