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By showing that the East Asians hopscotched past islands already populated by Melanesians without picking up their genes, it is also a case study in how culture can initially bar mixing between groups.
Once all groups are homogeneous, they stay homogeneous, as no mixing between groups occurs (for a model with migration, see Traulsen and Nowak, 2006).
The expected numbers of these interactions were then calculated assuming random mixing between groups of infectors and infectees via standard contingency table analysis [ 14].
The social environments in the Nigerian military barracks have significant mixing between groups having high and low sexual risk behavior patterns 11 and may be responsible for the high level of consistent condom users in our sample.
Risk factors among the military also include high rates of sexual partner change, elevated rates of STDs, low rates of condom use with commercial sex workers and other casual partners, and significant mixing between groups having high and low risk behavior patterns.
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We assessed the sensitivity of the results to this assumed mixing pattern by running simulations with a well-mixed population (no difference between within-group and between-group mixing) and a population with highly assortative mixing (between-group mixing rate that was 25% of the within-group mixing rate) (Web Figures 4 and 5).
Besides contact rates and mixing between age groups, the way individuals distribute their contacts across different locations may play an important role in determining how infections spread through a population.
The off-diagonals show mixing between age groups and can be seen to indicate social contacts between generations (e.g. in families between children-parents-grandparents).
This model used gender and age-specific sexual behavior characteristics (e.g., partner acquisition rates, mixing between age groups) as risk factors for HPV infection.
Empirical data such as the POLYMOD contact survey [ 39] indicate that mixing between age groups is often highly assortative, i.e. people have contacts primarily with people of the same age group as themselves.
The average effect of heterogeneities is a reasonable approximation because there will be mixing between the groups (e.g. between men and women and between CSWs and non-CSWs; 36% of men in Caió report ever having had sex with a CSW [ 16]) and the surveys did not exclude particular risk groups, but spanned a large majority of the population.
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