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Many rich countries now want to sign up to a weak agreement, one with pledges to achieve the targets but no legally-binding requirement, though the EU says it is arguing for legally-binding mitigation targets.
When Yvo de Boer, outgoing head of the UNFCCC, was asked yesterday by Alex Kirby, formerly of the BBC but now with Climate Change Media Partnership, how confident he was that the UN would deliver sufficient mitigation targets within the next decade - or ever - de Boer replied: "I am not confident that it will deliver them within the next decade".
Unless penalties for failure are inserted into the successor protocol, or instrument, or outcome which China and India would almost certainly not allow it is hard to imagine how it would have greater force.A more important issue will be the scale of the future regime's ambition to curb global warming, as reflected in the mitigation targets countries assume under it.
The results highlights that countries are expecting a significant contribution from the LULUCF sector to meet their INDC mitigation targets.
This leaves 54 Parties who explicitly state that the LULUCF sector is not included in their INDC mitigation targets.
Thus under the Kyoto Protocol all forest conversion fluxes reported under UNFCCC are accounted towards mitigation targets.
Therefore, more certain climate mitigation targets would be useful for the decision makers who design energy service demand reduction measures.
Consistent with this provision, the Kyoto Protocol, negotiated under the auspices of the UNFCCC, set mitigation targets exclusively for developed countries.
Second, we identify six types of mitigation targets, and visually cluster every state according to these formats.
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"But even if we have an ambitious mitigation target [to cut emissions] adaptation must be the cornerstone of a new treaty.
"What India is going to do is to set a target date which is 2020 and introduce a quantitative outcome which is an implicit mitigation target — not explicit target.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com