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A high-court's worth of circumstantial evidence points to the conclusion that pro-Russian separatists fired a surface-to-air missile out of their territory at what they probably thought was a Ukrainian military aircraft.
The previous fall a congressional commission headed by Donald Rumsfeld, a former defense secretary, had concluded that "rogue states" could acquire ballistic missile technologies, and North Korea had test-fired a long-range missile out over the Pacific.
For instance, members of the Administration talk about their willingness to strike a North Korean missile out of the sky, during a test flight, or about the prospect of attacking a launch facility.
In November, jittery Israelis jammed emergency telephone lines after the country carried out an unannounced test, firing what experts said was a long-range ballistic missile out to sea from an Air Force base just south of Tel Aviv during the morning rush, feeding already feverish speculation in the news media about Israel's intentions.
"Recognizing that there are so many of this type of missile out there, and with today's attack as a manifestation that there are terrorists who would truly like to shoot down civilian airliners, we have to understand that the threat has now gone up".
Colin, a friend in my local CND group in Sussex, had made a missile out of cardboard – we often used it as a prop in street theatre performances around the county, alongside a CND member dressed up as a US general.
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The Germans were using less conspicuous launch sites, and brought missiles out at the last moment.
Declaring the era of strategic patience toward Pyongyang "over," Trump said Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe would shoot North Korean missiles "out of the sky when he completes the purchase of a lot of military equipment from the United States".
It would be less difficult to wave off these contradictions if the Administration seemed to have a plan for the day after the last cruise missile takes out the last Syrian jet.
In the recent past Taiwan has expressed interest in purchasing the even-newer F-35 fighters, for their vertical-landing capability (helpful if China's missiles take out Taiwan's runways).
No matter how jaunty the foreground, though, with its penguin named Gunter and its goofy shouts of "Youth culture forever!," the background hints at a ruined world: missiles poke out, and abandoned technology is everywhere.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com