Serious miscalculations could mean a further retreat into impoverished insularity in the rainy mists of the north Atlantic.
The shipment to Hizbullah of a balance-tipping new weapon, a skirmish on the Lebanese or increasingly volatile Gaza border any number of miscalculations could ignite a conflagration.From peace process to war processAll of this should give new urgency to Arab-Israeli peacemaking.
Indeed, the financial crash and American clumsiness and miscalculations, especially under George Bush, have shown up liberal democracy as an unsightly blend of ideology and hypocrisy.That may be an accurate description of popular belief in some areas of the world, though in India, parts of Africa and eastern Europe, Mr Bush was a lot more popular than he was in western Europe and the Arab world.
Likewise, today's financial engineers never imagined their miscalculations could result in a global recession.The question is can we afford the trial-and-error period?
But Cancún's failure goes deeper than miscalculations on timing.
Mr Blair has been weakened by a long series of misfortunes and miscalculations, culminating last week in a parliamentary revolt against his anti-terror bill.
Mr Bush may not have consciously lied, but, egged on by Mr Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld, he made dreadful miscalculations.
With India and Pakistan in a hair-trigger confrontation over Kashmir, the sequence of miscalculations that propelled the Middle East into war 35 years ago looks newly relevant.Mr Oren argues that neither Israel nor Egypt wanted war.
Reprints Related items The oil market: The central bank intervenesJan 16th 2003If Mr Naimi is now on the way out, it is unlikely to be as punishment for the short-term miscalculations that have produced the present glut of oil in world markets.
If indeed the diplomats can halt the shelling, the nuclear-tipped miscalculations that got India and Pakistan into this crisis offer an opportunity to tackle some of the wider regional suspicions that make South Asia such a dangerous place.Outsiders cannot sort out the Kashmir problem.
The country has been devastated, in good part thanks to the miscalculations of America and its Western allies.
