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The minimum posterior probability is then read off the third axis.
For q = 90% the minimum posterior probability is 29.9% (blue line).
These techniques calibrate P values such that an interpretation as minimum Bayes factor or minimum posterior probability is justified.
For example, for q = 50% we obtain a minimum posterior probability of no survival benefit of around 4.5% (red line).
The approach allows to visually inspect the dependence of the minimum posterior probability on the prior probability of the null hypothesis.
Finally, the third axis gives not an exact value for the posterior probability of the null hypothesis but only the minimum posterior probability.
Similar(44)
I propose a graphical approach which easily translates any prior probability and P value to minimum posterior probabilities.
It visually transforms P values to minimum posterior probabilities of the null hypothesis and thus avoids complicated calculations.
Several attempts have been made to transform P values to minimum Bayes factors and minimum posterior probabilities of the hypothesis under consideration.
In this paper I propose a graphical approach, which easily translates any prior probability and P value into minimum posterior probabilities.
The minimum posterior probabilities for the same statistically significant findings were lower for a prior probability of 25% (data not shown).
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