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Data suggests that migration flows have slowed in the past few years, due to the recession and because of expanded enforcement.
"Migration flows have slowed down and the population growth has slowed down, and you're going to still see that probably for the rest of this year".
Though gravity models have been widely used for analysing economic issues, data limitations in migration flows have obstructed their use regarding migration.
First of all, migration flows have strongly increased, from an estimated 23 million immigrants in 1985 (UN 1998: 1) to more than 56 million, or 7.7percentnt of the total European population in 2000 IOMM 2003: 2003
Net migration flows have been continuously under-estimated.
Migration flows have been estimated as the higher of the values reported by the sending and receiving countries.
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The globalization of migration flows has increased multicultural diversity, which also importantly contributes to posing "significant challenges for both policy and research" [ 5].
However, since the 1980s the migration flow has constantly been growing and, as recent studies emphasize, also during the economic crisis (at least in the initial phase) immigration flow to Italy increased, rather than decreased.
The ongoing debt crisis proves this, and the chaos that the migration and refugee flows have unleashed emphasizes it.
Given that our model allows for distinguishing between short- and long-term factors impinging upon observable migration flows, we have to calculate the long-run coefficients for the final specifications, i.e., specification 3 in Table 2, as well as the pre-accession specification in Table 3.
Thus, weighted net migration flows would have been −7.1% for social disadvantage (towards more disadvantaged areas) and −3.3% for material deprivation, suggestive of modest overall social drift.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com