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Quarterly net migration data are expected to show that annual figure remains more than three times above May's target of 100,000.
Migration data are considered more relevant for risk assessment than content data, since it is only the fraction of a substance leaching or migrating from the rubber granulate that football players can actually be exposed to.
Although migration data are more relevant for risk assessment than content data, it was not possible within the given timeframe to conduct migration experiments for all samples and all prioritised substances.
However, since the main aim of this study was to estimate internal human migration flows for malaria endemic countries for which migration data are not available, ultimately, models where the linear predictors were common across all countries located in the same continent were constructed (under the assumption of homogeneity of the process along the space).
It is also important to consider that the underlying migration data are based only on permanent movements captured by the census and other types of migrations, such as seasonal movements and forced displacements, may be not captured by the model88,89,90.
Migration data are continuous.
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The first is that the UK's official migration data is so unreliable.
Where available for a substance, the migration data were given preference over the content data in calculating the exposure via the oral, dermal and inhalation route.
For each continent, the overall combinations of covariates and model types were explored using a multi-step approach to identify the model with the greatest predictive power in countries for which migration data were not available.
Considering that 5-year was the temporal interval available for most of the countries in the IPUMSI database and the fact that it has been demonstrated that both 1- and 5-year census-based internal migration data generally align well with shorter-term population movements in terms of relative strength of connections56,58, the 5-year migration data were used in this study.
Initially, a separate vector β= β0, β1, …, βn) of coefficients was used in the linear predictor of the gravity model for each country (including malaria non-endemic countries), in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, for which migration data were available in the IPUMSI database61 (hereafter referred as IPUMSI countries; Table 1).
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