That's not just because the methodology of polling is itself flawed (more on that below), it's also because the analysis is affected by the humans conducting it.
Buried in the methodology of most polls is a note that says something along the lines of "margin of error: ± 4%".
Recent polls have shown different results, with substantial leads for both sides in the referendum and a number of dead heats - as well as controversy over the methodology of online polls.
It might make me think about the downsides of universal suffrage, the challenges facing public education, the limitations of "fact-checking" as a corrective to Swiftboating, the coarsening of public discourse, the devolution of news into entertainment, the risks to democracy of Rovian demagoguery -- stuff like that -- but it wouldn't make me question the methodology of the polls.
"Can you please give us the response and refusal rates for your most recent national poll?": A Research 2000 representative explained the methodology of the poll, saying that it was a rolling poll with a baseline of 1,100 likely voters, taking approximately 355 to 365 calls per night and throwing out the oldest numbers.
A spokesman for Mr. Nagin, Terry Davis, said the mayor had questioned the methodology of the poll.
A Quinnipiac University Poll also released last week had Romney leading Obama by 6 points in Florida, although there has been some debate about the methodology of that poll.
"It's no surprise that the methodology of this poll also predicts that Nick Clegg would lose his seat, as it doesn't name him as the candidate.
(The top 10 appears to be a top 11, but I never have understood the methodology of this poll. Has it ever been explained? Is it one of those dubious internet prompts where listeners have to select from a menu of possibilities, which would be a real no no for Nono?) The number one piece is Vaughan Williams' The Lark Ascending, about which there is virtually nothing to say, so bland is it.
I make no particular claim for my methodology, which is based on a regular monitoring of the poll-of-polls, together with a respect for demographics, and a reading of as many individual poll internals as I can stomach.
