However, in a medium term forecasting problem, we cannot foresee the excessive annual horizon.
Moody's cut its medium-term forecast for Brent crude to $63 a barrel by 2020, a little more than half the $115 reached in summer 2014.
For those uninitiated with the ZEW, it is data complied by the German firm, the Center for European Economic Research, which questions financial experts throughout Europe every month, making a medium-term forecast about Germany 's economic situation.
The economics watchdog added: "As a consequence, we now expect greater write-offs beyond our medium-term forecast horizon, and will update the longer-term projections in our next fiscal sustainability report, to be published in July".
However, the Bank has somewhat reduced its medium-term forecast for consumer spending growth and says that it could turn out to be even lower because household debt has reached a record level in relation to income.
The I.M.F. is widely expected to reduce the medium-term forecast to 5 or 6 percent when it issues its World Economic Outlook in the coming days, said Eswar Prasad, a former head of the I.M.F.'s China division who is now the Tolani senior professor of trade policy at Cornell.
The survey is made by querying financial experts throughout Europe every month in order to make a medium-term forecast about Germany 's economic situation.
The EEPAS model (Rhoades and Evison 2004 20077) is a medium-term forecast model based on the precursory scale increase phenomenon and associated predictive scaling relations (Evison and Rhoades 2004).
But it said short-term revenue figures were repeatedly exaggerated – including by the OBR: "However, such pessimism does not apply to medium-term forecasts of North Sea oil and gas production.
The medium-term forecasts for borrowing look fragile, depending on sustained solid economic growth, much slower expansion of public spending and a rise in the tax share of GDP to its highest level since the early 1980s".
Using a discount rate of 8 percent and assuming that revenues increase in the long term at a 5 percent rate, they generate implied long-term margins, which they compare with analysts' medium-term forecasts.
