This region is characterized by a semiarid climate, with annual mean rainfall and temperature equal to 590 mm and 24 °C, respectively.
The predictors used were lags of 1 3 months previous observations of mean rainfall, mean temperature, DF cases, and their interactions.
Mean rainfall and mean temperature per month for the two areas were used to obtain estimates for Blantyre.
Briefly, malaria epidemics are linked to environmental changes and increased mean rainfall and ambient temperatures, changes in land use patterns, malaria vector dynamics, host immune status and individual or community factors such as socio-economic status, population movement, knowledge on malaria and protective behaviours [ 7, 10- 13].
There are high levels of confidence in forecasting ongoing temperature and mean rainfall increase over the country, however, climate change impacts depend on the extent of emission scenarios and climatic models.
Modeling malaria endemicity in Tanzania using outpatient cases (2004 2008) in relation to mean temperature and mean rainfall has shown that almost the whole of Tanzania is endemic for malaria, although with some spatial variation between areas.
Cali's dengue incidence rates also exhibit relationships to the local climate and ENSO; the most severe outbreaks tend to occur over multiple seasons during El Niño events, when the mean rainfall is below average and temperatures remain warmer than 18°C.
There were also seasonal variations in weekly mean maximum and minimum temperature and weekly mean rainfall in both regions.
We developed "weather" models by relating climatic variables (mean temperature, rainfall, rainfall seasonality and temperature seasonality) from the three month, six month and one year period preceding each bird record over a 58 year period (1950 2008).
The correlative approach was based on a previously generated logistic regression model using six climatic predictor variables including mean annual temperature rainfall and humidity, as well as temperature and rainfall variability [24].
