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Fig 2 shows the agreement between mean observed risk and mean predicted risk by 5 year age bands for both men and women.
Fig 1 visually shows the agreement between mean observed risk and mean predicted risk grouped by tenths of predicted risk for all three models.
Occasionally, these risk groups may be described by reporting the observed risk for each group, however, these risk groups should be labelled with the predicted risks, by typically reporting the range or mean predicted risk.
In the update cohort, the updated ADO model showed very good agreement between predicted and observed 3-year mortality risk across 10 equally sized groups of subjects with increasing predicted risk (figure 1: mean predicted risk 9.1%).
We adjusted the intercept of the prediction rule in such a way that the mean predicted risk agrees with the observed proportion of microalbuminuria (intercept changes from −9.88 to −10.14 .Figure 22 shows a score chart that corresponds to the adjusted prediction rule.
The corresponding mean predicted risk was 24.24% with NICE Framingham and 15.32% with QRISK2.
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The observed proportions and mean predicted risks were in good agreement across the four risk groups.
The discriminative ability was even better in the FinnDiane and CACTI patients (c-statistic = 0.79 in both).The mean predicted risks in the two datasets with recently treated patients (FinnDiane and CACTI) were higher than the observed proportions of microalbuminuria (13% predicted risk and 8% observed in FinnDiane, 11% and 6% in CACTI).
We assessed calibration, comparing the mean predicted risks at 10 years with the observed risk by 10th of predicted risk.
We assessed calibration (comparing the mean predicted risks at 10 years with the observed risk by tenth of predicted risk).
We assessed calibration (comparing the mean predicted risks at one and five years with the observed risk by tenth of predicted risk.
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Since I tried Ludwig back in 2017, I have been constantly using it in both editing and translation. Ever since, I suggest it to my translators at ProSciEditing.

Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com