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The variability of mean leaf pollen density is denoted by the 95% confidence interval for the mean regression curve.
Additionally, Additional file 1: Figure S7 shows this relationship on a linear scale for daily mean leaf pollen deposition values.
In contrast, the data of the EFSA Panel [1, 4] relied on estimates derived mostly from single or a few measurements, reflecting mean leaf pollen density values of single leaves, plants or days only.
For example, the data from Lang et al. [35], cited in the EFSA Panel [1], were based on single measurements of mean leaf pollen density taken only once during flowering at each site.
The relationship factor between PMF pollen deposition data and the mean leaf pollen deposition according to the EFSA Panel is thus 73 times lower than the factor of 0.68 that was based on field measurements, as documented in [3] (see Fig. 1).
Considering the assessment based on the observed data of [2, 3], these thresholds can be consistently attained only at a kilometre or farther (1000 m; mean leaf pollen density with Urtica 'realistic' mean regression = 1.6 n/cm2; upper 95% confidence boundary for 'worst case' scenario = 69 n/cm2).
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This value is 2.7 times higher than the EFSA Panel's estimate of 85.56 n/cm2 for within-field mean daily leaf pollen density.
The data from Lang et al. [35] cited by the EFSA Panel [1] relied on single measurements of mean leaf density values per site by washing pollen off of single leaves.
The results also indicated that mean leaf measurements of single plants or days were not representative and that leaf pollen deposition over the flowering period must be considered.
Furthermore, because exposure as experienced by an individual NT larva is what is important in risk assessment, there is no merit in the argument of Kruse-Plass et al. that "mean leaf measurements of single plants or days are not representative" and that "leaf pollen deposition over the flowering period must be considered".
This method best depicted the variability of pollen deposition on plant leaves in terms of mean, variance and peak values of the true total variability of leaf pollen density values, as shown in Table 1 of [42] (see Additional file 1: S5; column 'Total').
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