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The mean larva density decreased with increasing clay thickness.
For simplification the model (Eq. 8.5) was reparameterized by using segmented linear functions to approximate the effects of DWT and CTH on mean larva density (Eq. 8.51, Table 5).
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Figure 2 Model effects (Eq. 8.5) of distance to water table ( DWT ) (A) and clay thickness ( CTH ) (B) on the mean of the conditional negative binomial distribution for describing larva density per m 2. Dashed lines mark the 95% confidence intervals of the model effects.
A maximum larva density of 56 larvae · m−2 was recorded.
GD i : larva density at plot i (n · m−2).
Hence, neither the assumption that larva density follows a Poisson distribution nor the assumption that larva density follows a zero-inflated distribution could be validated in this case.
Hence the predicted larva density increased as the groundwater level dropped.
For modeling the sum of larvae in the 4 × 0.25 m2 subplots at each sample point, that is the larva density per square meter, was used.
Hence, if conditions like a low CTH or a large DWT led to a high potential larva density, then the actual larva density depended strongly on geographic location (Figures 10A, 10D).
To provide an example, the larva density was estimated at three different locations differing significantly in spatial effects (Figure 10).
Figure 5 Overall wormplots of negative binomial regression models (Eq. 8.5, A; Eq.8.51, B) for quantifying larva density.
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