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The mean excess mortality rate was 13.6 deaths per 10,000 population across provinces.
The ultimate dependent variable in the regression model is the mean excess mortality for certain ATs at a given hour of the day and lag.
Mean excess mortality was lower after the policy change for the age groups 65 74 as well as 75+ years, but was also lower after 2000/2001 than before among the 45 64 year-olds (see online supplementary table S2).
The mean excess mortality for a given AT range is compared to the 95th percentile mean of 10,000 randomly-drawn subsets of the same sample size as the test group.
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The mean excess respiratory mortality rate estimate for the first pandemic wave was 2.4 per 10,000 (range across provinces, 0 10.3 per 10,000); excess mortality estimates from all-cause and respiratory causes were well correlated (Spearman rho = 0.72, P < 0.001).
Mean excess P&I mortality for winters was significantly higher before 2003 than after that year [mean ± S.D.: 1.44±1.35 vs. 0.35±1.13, p = 0.04].
For all age bands the mean northern excess mortality was greater than zero.
Table 2 summarises the mean northern excess mortality over 44 years by age and sex for a selection of age groups reflecting life stages.
Figure 2 shows the mean daily excess mortality for each 1°C interval of the daily maximum temperature of the four cities.
For example, an EMR of 2 for males compared with females means that the excess mortality related to the disease of interest is two-fold higher in males than in females.
After ART was fully established, mortality risk declined in older age groups, which meant that the excess mortality risk among PLWH was more uniformly distributed across the age range, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 12 (95% CI: 9 16) in 15 19 year olds, 13 (95% CI: 11 16) in 30 34 year olds, and 5 (95% CI: 4 6) among 50 54 year olds.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com