As the costs for the next generation AVDs could be lower (e.g. due to a more competitive environment) or higher (due to the expected improvement in efficacy) different AVD costing scenarios were analyzed: the first year cost were set at €55,000, €70,000, €85,000 (mean base case), €100,000 and at €115,000 whereas the annual follow-up costs were kept constant at €1,500.
Assuming 25% of working time to be indirect rather than the 33% used in the base case resulted in costs declined for all event pathways to 87 95% of the means base case costs, for example, Event pathway 1, £13.47/£15.54*100=87%.
The PSA consisted of varying all parameter values simultaneously by sampling each parameter 5,000 times from statistical distributions, which are specified by the mean (base-case parameter estimate) and standard error of each parameter.
To address uncertainty around the mean ICER, univariate sensitivity analyses were conducted where one variable was changed at a time while keeping all other variables constant at their mean or base-case value.
Open image in new window Fig. 14 Peak base shear values for fixed-base case: a mean ((mu)) and b coefficient of variation ((c_v)) for different heights of water, H. Mean values of peak base shear and drift ratio for different soil conditions and heights of water for different hazard levels are obtained (Fig. 15).
Uncertainty in wage rates for health educators and nurse supervisors was modeled by a bivariate normal distribution with means equal to base-case values, SDs of $2 and $4 per hour, respectively, and a correlation coefficient of 0.14.
The t test compares the mean of 100 runs of the base-case model attrition rate with the mean attrition rate in the OPM NASA data-set, 2005 2014.
Results: in the base-case analysis, the mean falls programme cost was £349 per person.
From the base-case analysis, the mean costs for the no treatment group were the lowest ($392.6), followed by salmeterol ($1,268.7) and tiotropium ($1,408.6).
In the base-case scenario, the mean (SE) number of exacerbations in 5 years was 3.50 (0.14) in the tiotropium group, 4.16 (0.40) in the salmeterol group and 4.71 (0.54) in the ipratropium group.
Changing the mean age of women in the base-case analysis from 35 to 44 for high-risk women and from 40 to 50 for moderate-risk women resulted in genetic services only extending survival by 0.003 years or 1 day.
