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At the end of day 1, the estimated mean attack size equals 850 (with a 95% probability interval ranging from 60 to 3,300).
With this prior, absent any data other than the first case observed at time 0, the estimated mean attack size is approximately 1,090.
Similar(58)
Given the data observed, application of Bayes rule enables estimation of the posterior distribution of both the size and time of attack, from which summary statistics such as the mean, standard deviation, and probability intervals of the attack size and time are easily estimated.
Figure 2 (solid curve) shows the mean delay in attack detection as a function of the initial attack size for a noncontagious agent.
Fig. 2 Mean Attack Frequencies (mITT Populationa).
Mean attack frequency per month was 3.9 (range 1 10).
Mean attack duration is 5 7 days.
The expected prior attack size associated with this distribution approximately equals 9,999/ln(10,000) = 1,090.
We seek to estimate the initial attack size and the time of the attack from observed cases of infection in real time.
Consequently, for a given initial attack size, the attack detection delay distribution is shorter for a contagious agent, as is clear from Figure 3.
Exterminate means attacking and eliminating rival players.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com