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As expected from (12), the delay for seismicity to rise grows with growing lower threshold (50, 100, 170 kPa) and the maximum seismicity densities become smaller.
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Conversely, a higher value results in a lower level of maximum seismicity and a longer tail after shut-in.
In general, a lower value of (C_{text{RST}}) results in a higher level of maximum seismicity and a longer tail after shut-in.
For 0.2 kPa (blue), the maximum seismicity is 6 events per hour and the tail after shut-in in the range of days.
As small seismicity densities do not contribute significantly to the total seismicity history (see Eq. 2), the delay times inherent in RST are not very relevant and the good comparison between CPT and RST solutions as shown in Fig. 3 not surprising.
The seismicity density (=the number of seismic events with magnitude 0 or larger per unit time and unit volume) is dot{n}left( t right) = frac{1}{gamma left( t right)} cdot frac{{dot{nu }_{text{tec}} }}{{dot{tau }_{text{tec}} }}quad (4 with background seismicity density for seismic events with magnitudes 0 or larger (dot{nu }_{text{tec}}).
Graphical abstract We report precursory seismic patterns prior to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes, as measured by four different methods based on changes in seismicity that can be used for earthquake forecasting: the b-value method, two methods of seismic quiescence evaluation, and an analysis of seismicity density in space and time.
We report precursory seismic patterns prior to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes, as measured by four different methods based on changes in seismicity that can be used for earthquake forecasting: the b-value method, two methods of seismic quiescence evaluation, and an analysis of seismicity density in space and time.
There is no time delay between a change in pressure rate and seismicity density.
In CPT seismicity density is proportional to the temporal derivative of the pressure.
High pressure rate causes high seismicity density but small delay times.
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