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One DHW is equal to 1 °C above the maximum monthly mean (bleaching threshold) for one week.
MMM = maximum monthly mean, bleaching threshold = local MMM + 1 °C, DHW = Degree Heating Weeks (see Methods for more details).
The high local-scale variation in projected ASB timing is due to variation in the difference between typical warm season temperatures and the maximum monthly mean (MMM).
In situ temperature data are not available for Montgomery Reef, but seasonal monthly temperatures generally range from ~25.5 °C to ~31 °C in the region, with a long-term maximum monthly mean (MMM) sea surface temperature (SST) of 30.827 °C38.
Degree heating months were calculated for each year between 2006 and 2099 as anomalies above the warmest monthly temperature (the maximum monthly mean or MMM) from the Pathfinder climatology34 and were summed for each period of 3 consecutive months in the time series.
In San Salvador, the capital, which is 2,238 feet (682 metres) above sea level, the maximum monthly mean temperature is in the mid-90s F (about 34 °C), in March, and the lowest monthly mean is in the low 60s F (about 17 °C), in January.
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Moreover, the maximum and minimum monthly mean hourly measured VTEC values inferred from both the Arba Minch and Entebbe stations are observed in October and July, respectively.
In addition, the maximum and minimum monthly mean hourly VTEC values are observed in October and July, respectively, during both the low (2009) and the high (2012) solar activity phases.
Furthermore, a study has shown that dengue viruses may reduce incubation time in mosquitoes from approximately 2 to 1 week at temperatures of 32°C and above (49), while the maximum of monthly mean temperature in our study was 29°C.
To characterize present-day climates, we used coarse-scale climate summaries [43], including annual mean precipitation, annual mean temperature, annual mean maximum monthly temperature, and annual mean minimum monthly temperature (more dimensions are available, but this reduced set was necessary owing to the more limited suite of dimensions available for future climates).
aTmean, the mean monthly temperature; Tmax, the mean of maximum monthly temperatures; Tmin, the mean of minimum monthly temperatures; met.
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