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For further analyses we chose to use the maximum likelihood rate.
Specifically, rates of 0.020 0.025 are not significantly less likely than the maximum likelihood rate and yield maximum likelihood ancestral states indicating 25 cases of digit loss but no instances in which digits are gained.
Secondly, when considered in conjunction with states inferred for the manus, reconstructions of numbers of pedal digits (i.e., for the maximum likelihood rate of digit gain) imply implausible digit configurations for many internal nodes.
All rates of digit gain not significantly less likely than the maximum likelihood estimate yield maximum likelihood ancestral states identical to or only insignificantly more likely than those reconstructed assuming the maximum likelihood rate (in comparing maximum likelihood and alternative states, log-likelihood differences of no more than two units were considered insignificant; see Methods).
As discussed above, there is no cogent statistical basis for favouring either of these reconstructions; ancestral states inferred assuming the maximum likelihood rate of digit gain (implying many reversals of limb reduction) are only insignificantly more likely than those reconstructed assuming rates of digit gain of 0.020 0.025 (entailing no reversals).
Moreover, in all instances, the ancestral states implying implausible digit configurations are not significantly more likely than alternative states implying configurations observed among extant species of Lerista (see Figure 1; this is not the case for ancestral states inferred under the maximum likelihood rate of digit gain).
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This allows estimating by maximum likelihood rates of range expansion (dispersal) and contraction (extinction), and range inheritance scenarios at cladogenetic events from a time-calibrated phylogeny with terminal lineage distributions (Ree and Smith 2008).
Pedant is MS Windows software for estimating locus-specific maximum likelihood rates of these two classes of error.
The extent to which the ancestral state reconstructions depend on assumed rates of character state transition was assessed by comparing ancestral states inferred for a range of rates with those reconstructed assuming the maximum likelihood rates.
For the manus, the ratio of maximum likelihood rates of digit gain and loss (9.524 × 10-5) indicathatthat increases in the number of digits are far less probable than reductions.
Bold entries indicate statistically significant rate heterogeneity by the maximum likelihood relative rate test.
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