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George Hall of Brandeis University and Thomas Sargent of New York University† reckon that less than a quarter of the reduction in America's debt-to-GDP ratio between 1945 and 1974 came from negative real rates of return on government bonds.The Hall-Sargent calculations show that almost all of this inflation tax was borne by those who held bonds with a maturity of five years or more.
Thus, a Treasury fund with an average maturity of five years is slightly riskier than a five-year Treasury note.
The BOJ has already been buying two and three-year bonds, but there are now hopes that it may start buying bonds with a maturity of five years.
They levied a tax of 0.003% on a bond with a maturity of five years or more.
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A large portion of government debt consists of bonds with specific maturities of five years to 99 years or more.
Add in the effect of QE and the Fed may be the dominant influence on yields all the way out to bonds with maturities of five years.
The bank is sitting on a huge, €26 billion ($33.5 billion) portfolio of Italian government bonds with an average maturity of seven years.
Some institutions have less far to go than others: the unsecured debt of Goldman Sachs already boasts an average maturity of eight years, for instance.
As a compromise the Treasury is mulling the issuance of floating-rate notes, whose interest rate would be reset daily and whose maturity of two years or above would limit rollover risk.The final implication is for central banks in America, Britain and Japan that have implemented quantitative easing (QE), the purchase of bonds with newly created money.
I recently shopped around for $500,000 of Ginnie Mae 8 1/2s with a seasoned payment history and an expected average maturity of ten years.
Empirical rates are taken from default-free zero coupon bonds with term to maturity of ten years, as estimated by Deutsche Bundesbank for the debt securities market (Listed Federal securities, Svensson method).
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com