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The aim of the study was to begin the investigation of this rapid rise by developing, calibrating, and validating a mathematical disease simulation model of EAC using available epidemiologic data.
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SM: Mathematical model analysis, simulation studies and software development, wrote the article.
OUK conceived and wrote the mathematical model and simulation programs, and interpreted the results.
CCNW, PCC and KLN: Mathematical model analysis, simulation studies, software development, data analysis and manipulation, and drafting of the article.
Developing and using mathematical and simulation strategies cover also an important role in the analysis of the dynamics of infectious diseases in populations.
There are a large number of mathematical and simulation based approaches to epidemic modeling [e.g. [ 1- 4]].
Cardoen et al., however, separate the methods into several broad categories, including mathematical programming, simulation and improvement heuristic [ 4].
However, mathematical and simulation results provided, concern only aggregate characteristics such as invasion probability, without discussing the spatial patterns emerging.
For the evaluation of qualitative results, we compare the mathematical analyses with simulation results to confirm that the simulation is indeed correctly performing the supposed procedures.
The mathematical modeling and simulation software AcslXtreme (Aegis Technologies Group Inc., Huntsville, AL, USA) can be used for model simulations, parameter estimation, sensitivity analysis, and Monte Carlo analysis.
The mathematical simulation fits theory to experimental facts.
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