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This means that mapped utility values are inaccurate for those patients with scores on the condition-specific measure that are associated with an EQ-5 D utility value below 0.5.
Previous mapping studies have cautioned that the use of such mapped utility values would not be appropriate for use at the individual level and instead should be applied to analyses performed at the group level [ 3].
Therefore, in addition to mapped utility values resulting in an inflated cost per QALY estimate, the probability of a treatment being cost-effective at a specified level of willingness to pay (e.g. £20-30 k in the UK), which is driven by uncertainty around the cost and effect parameter estimates, will also be overestimated.
In probabilistic sensitivity analysis this results in less uncertainty around the estimate of cost per QALY, but that is an incorrect representation of reality. 1 Hypothetical figure In addition to the tighter confidence intervals, using mapped utility values may result in an underestimation of the utility-gain between time intervals.
The next step is to investigate which QLQ-C30 and HAQ value is associated with level '3' answers on the EQ-5 D. The use of this exercise is to identify scores on the condition specific measure that are related to a possible cause of overprediction in mapped utility values: at those scores standard mapping algorithms might be inaccurate.
The distributions of the observed and mapped utility values were also compared.
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Therefore, for the US model, the SGRQ total score was mapped to utility values using the algorithm developed by Starkie et al. 28 The SGRQ data by COPD severity at baseline from the ACCORD I trial was used as the basis for the mapping.
Fig. 4 Example of mapping between utility values and minislots Fig. 5 Flow chart depicting the process at a candidate helper node.
Logistic quantile regression is an approach for handling bounded outcomes [ 26], which is theoretically correct for mapping of utility values.
To better judge cost effectiveness it would be necessary to consider in more detail how symptom scores map to utility values and how QALY gains estimated by disease specific symptom scores compare with estimates by using a generic instrument such as the EQ-5D.
The SF-12 health survey outcomes collected at baseline, 4, 12 and 24 weeks were mapped onto EQ-5D utility values using an algorithm developed by Gray et al. [30].
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com