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The analog technique is a complex way of making a forecast, requiring the forecaster to remember a previous weather event which is expected to be mimicked by an upcoming event.
Yet this is a simple judgement that anyone making a forecast often overlooks.
I am not making a forecast that a crash is going to occur.
He said: "We're not making a forecast because I think it's unlikely we'll get that forecast right.
Armed with that knowledge, they can work towards making a forecast that's more reliable to decision makers.
"But it helps to be here on location, making a forecast for this one swath of land".
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(He did not make a forecast).
Have you made a forecast of next quarter's sales?
Then, we use this information to make a forecast each month.
With all of this kind of data, he added, "anybody can make a forecast".
"Global warming itself fails to give the very critical features of specificity that make a forecast practical," he wrote.
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