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I am not saying that we can never make rational judgments about a political leader's success.
It's easy to make rational judgments in hindsight, but this seems dubious.
We believe we should be calm and make rational judgments from a broad perspective," Mr. Fujimura said.
That said, the fact that you haven't slept for three nights makes me worry about your capacity to make rational judgments.
Science merely confirms what experience has long shown: when we are afraid for our lives, emotions take hold of our thoughts and actions, and we find it difficult to make rational judgments.
"There is some catastrophic event that is affecting her ability to speak, to see, her ability to know where she is and to make rational judgments," Mr. Ruskin said.
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Commodities traders should be pondering the future price of crude oil, while equity investors should be making rational judgments regarding the future earnings trend of oil companies.
Illustrating how people are generally ill-equipped to make rational economic judgments, he introduces what he calls the Monty Hall problem, in which a game-show contestant is asked to choose among three doors, behind two of which are rubber ducks.
In other words, when we think that we are making rational political judgments, we could be, in fact, judging someone at least partly based on a fleeting impression of his or her face.
"A rush to judgment two generations ago banning medical studies of psychedelics has impeded our ability to make rational decisions," he says.
All this contradicted not only Ellsberg's own explanation for mistaken judgments but a whole way of seeing the world, in which if decision-makers can be given good information they will make rational choices.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com