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The last major antigenic shift event was in 1968 and it generated the H3N2 (Hong Kong 'flu) strain that has been in circulation since.
A major antigenic shift resulting in a pandemic potential influenza virus is anticipated to cause a major threat to public health.
Major antigenic shift associated with genetic reassortment has led to devastating pandemics in 1918, 1957 and 1968, when pathogenic viruses with efficient human-to-human transmission entered the human population with no pre-existing immunity.
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Influenza viruses are constantly changing either through the collection of minor point mutations or through major antigenic shifts.
Influenza A virus experiences two major antigenic changes, antigenic shift (gene reassortment) and antigenic drift (point mutation), whereas influenza B and C viruses undergo antigenic drift only.
Because vaccines have to be manufactured before the actual epidemic strains are known, a failure to anticipate emergence of a strain with major antigenic drift or shift relative to the vaccine will result in a substantial reduction or abrogation of vaccine-mediated protection.
Recombination involving major outer membrane antigen genes — "antigenic shift" has been linked to increased incidence of meningococcal disease (Harrison et al., 2006).
In addition, antigenically novel strains or subtypes of influenza A virus can emerge and spread rapidly due to a major antigenic change known as antigenic shift, causing global pandemics such as the ones that occurred in the last century or the recent H1N1 pandemic (pdmH1N1) in 2009 [ 13– 13].
The influenza virus is continually evolving and under immune pressure; it may either evolve through small gradual changes in the virus (antigenic drift) or through abrupt major changes in the virus (antigenic shift) most frequently by genetic reassortments [ 3].
Although the major antigenic variation results from the shift of expression from one opa gene to the next, antigenic differences between the Opa proteins can also arise through a variety of genetic events, for example point mutation, deletion, translocation and import from other members of the Neisseriaceae.
Ongoing, comprehensive surveillance is vital to addressing influenza because influenza A viruses have the capacity to undergo abrupt shifts in the major antigenic determinants of their surface proteins (4 ); these shifts can give rise to novel influenza viruses capable of producing catastrophic pandemics (5 ).
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