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Watson's research focuses on time-series econometrics, empirical macroeconomics, and macroeconomic forecasting.
c) Modeling disagreement: There is considerable disagreement among economists about the assumptions of macroeconomic forecasting models, including the Fed and private forecaster models that form the basis of the CEA modeling approach.
These are determined by using macroeconomic forecasting models.
These estimates provide limits to the accuracy that can be expected from macroeconomic forecasting.
Includes an introduction to macroeconomic forecasting as practiced by central banks.
We introduce a non-Gaussian dynamic mixture model for macroeconomic forecasting.
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Unfortunately, these shifts are hard to anticipate, and the track record of macroeconomic forecasts is quite bad.
Many corporations, I find, have replaced the annual top-down planning ritual, based on macroeconomic forecasts, with more sophisticated processes.
The government has drafted a new set of macroeconomic forecasts to take into account a lower oil price.
The Treasury's macroeconomic forecasts still project big surpluses in the next few years, although this has been bought at the cost of a rising tax burden.
Dynamic factor models have had notable empirical forecasting successes, but there has been little work to date on the performance of factor-based macroeconomic forecasts under structural instability.
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