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It would take a combination of events, each of low probability, to produce a large outbreak.
But the analysts themselves assigned a very low probability to that happening.
But he added, "Currently, forecasters are assigning low probability to such a development".
Nobody has proven cold fusion doesn't exist, but most scientists would assign a low probability to it because so many attempts at replicating the original have failed.
Like nearly everybody else, his firm assigned a low probability to an event like the financial crisis.
Deutsche Bank analysts said: "The key risk to the shares relates to an FDA safety review of stimulants in ADHD but we attach a low probability to an adverse outcome given that stimulants have been in use for over 30 years with no firm evidence of cardiovascular risk".
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"It's very hard to communicate extremely low probabilities to the general public," says Binzel.
Thus good results can be achieved only by starting with a "reasonable" initial HMM, for example assigning very low probabilities to certain transitions (such as determiner → determiner, determiner → verb, adjective → verb).
This is highly undesirable – I'll attach very low probabilities to outcomes implying that I'm a fool".
Discrimination measures the degree to which the model is able to assign high mortality probabilities to patients who die, and low probabilities to those who survive.
An equal number of low-confidence target sites was extracted by traversing the list of predicted sites for each miRNA from the sites with lowest probability to those with the highest probability, and selecting, for each miRNA a number of low-probability sites equal to the number of high-probability sites.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com