But now as energy security, food security, water security and climate security all press in on us – and are seen to be increasingly interlinked – I think we should celebrate (or at least acknowledge) the uncomfortable longer term accuracy of at least some of the Limits team's analysis and forecasts.
The use of dynamic models not only allowed us to estimate early (<48 h) mortality with a high degree of accuracy (C-index of 0.87), but also to continuously update the longer-term prognosis with increasing accuracy: the C-index increased from 0.75 for the day 0-30 model to 0.81 and 0.82 for the composite and day 7-30 models, respectively.
Although this link between monitoring accuracy and learning is intuitively plausible and is assumed by general theories of self-regulated learning, it has not received a great deal of empirical scrutiny and no study to date has examined the link between monitoring accuracy and longer-term retention.
Further research is needed to see if a model derived using response data following longer-term treatment data might have greater accuracy in predicting response beyond Week 8. Currently, this decision tree is appropriately used only for adult patients with chronic schizophrenia who are moderately to severely ill.
However, the longer-term trial results showed up the poor accuracy of the surrogate indicator when the actual outcome of arrhythmic sudden death was considered.
For the G series, preliminary analysis suggested that only the longer-term state was applicable, owing to lower temporal accuracy and resolution.
It is common practice in imaging studies to combine a decision tree for the short-term diagnostic accuracy and treatment decision with a Markov model for the longer-term consequences of the disease.
The discriminative accuracy of the GRACE risk score in hospital survivors for predicting longer-term mortality was maintained.
In head-to-head comparisons with eight other prediction scores, the ICH-FOS conveyed similar or better accuracy in predicting shorter-term outcomes and was superior in predicting longer-term outcomes across different modified Rankin Scale scores in the CNSR cohort.
Whatever their accuracy, their immediacy feeds the election-to-election perspective of most elected officials despite longer-term evidence that the earth is warming, and that this warming will have dire consequences.
Still, longer-term challenges remain.
